2019 NFL
Draft, Good vs. Bad Value
The
2019 NFL draft was full of surprises. The beauty of surprises is they make it
easy to figure out who the winners and losers of the draft are. I don't do
draft grades because in order to assign grades we would need results which
won't be in for at least 3 years. Therefore, I keep to good vs. bad value or
winners vs. losers.
As
our first loser, Arizona did what I expected and made Kyler Murray the number
one overall pick. As I explained last week, this was their only viable option
because of the abundance of mistakes they have made in the last 4 years. What
makes them the ultimate loser in this deal is the fact that they waited until
minutes before the draft to begin seriously shopping Josh Rosen. Just to break
down the entire situation involving Rosen, the Cardinals effectively traded the
2018 15th overall (1st round), 79th (3rd
round), and 152nd (5th round) picks for this year’s 62nd
(2nd round) and a 5th round pick next year. In the long
run, the Cardinals end up with the coach and quarterback combo they want but
gave up horrible value to get there. To quote Dodgeball “It’s a bold strategy,
Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for ‘em.” To be honest I think they would be
much better off if they would fire GM Keim who has obviously spent too much
time unsuccessfully trying to dodge a wrench.
As
a proud Las Vegas resident, I am doing everything I can to convince myself to
root for the Raiders, but they continue to make it hard. With the 4th
overall pick they took Clelin Ferrell who has the potential to be an impact
player, but, the Raiders did not get good value for their drafting position.
Ferrell was not even the most talented player at his position and definitely
not the best player available. I would rather have seen them pick up Josh
Allen, Ed Oliver, or Christian Wilkins with the 4th pick. If Ferrell
was the player you wanted because of his personality, ethics, and scheme fit,
finding a trade partner who wanted to move up from a mid first round pick to
the fourth would have been smart. Even if they had traded with Tennessee at
number 19 they could have still drafted Ferrell but had him on a cheaper rookie
contract and most likely gained at least a 5th round pick out of the
deal. If trades were not available, then they should have drafted Allen. Maybe
then they would have had confidence in their pick and wouldn’t have had to take
two more defensive ends in this draft. At 24 they turned around and took
Alabama running back Josh Jacobs who was projected 2nd round. Most
likely they could have drafted Jacobs with the 40th overall pick. Not
taking Johnathan Abram at 24 was risky but they got lucky when he fell into
their lap at 27. Had they followed my model they could have upgraded on Trayvon
Mullen who they took 40th by using the 27th pick on a
corner. At 27 not one corner had been drafted and they could have chosen
whoever they felt was best in the class. All in all, I feel like they addressed
their biggest needs by drafting three defensive ends, two cornerbacks, a
running back, and a safety, but did so in a very inefficient manner and did not
address their need at inside linebacker.
The
next loser in the draft is clearly the New York Giants. Going in we all knew
Raiders and Giants news was going to dominate post-draft reactions for multiple
reasons. First, they went into the draft with a combined six of the 32 first
round picks. Second, the reason they had all those picks, including two of the
top six, is because their management routinely does things in such an illogical
fashion that they repeatedly have underachieving seasons resulting in said
great draft picks. So to no one’s surprise with the 6th overall pick,
the Giants took Daniel Jones, a quarterback with late first round value. What
that draft pick did is set back their defense that needs a total overhaul. Just
like the Raiders, the Giants left all the top defensive talent on the
table. Again, like the Raiders, they
took their top player much too early because they could have had Jones at 17 and
upgraded Dexter Lawrence to Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, or Christian Wilkins. In
addition, if something had gone off the rails and somebody else was dumb enough
to draft Jones in the top 16, they could have easily given Arizona their 17th
overall pick and received Josh Rosen who has much more potential than Jones
anyway. Again they just didn’t get good value for their multiple first-round
picks but did help their defensive unit by drafting seven players on that side
of the ball.
By
now you probably have guessed the teams I fell like turned their top level
picks into great value, but, I will run through them just in case. San Francisco
took Nick Bosa number two overall getting good value because he has number one
overall talent. Jacksonville, by taking Josh Allen, even though he doesn’t
address one of their top needs, received great value at number seven. Because
of the failures of Arizona, Oakland, and New York, the third team that was able
to exceed expectations was the Buffalo Bills who were lucky enough to draft Ed
Oliver as the 9th overall pick. My ultimate good value award winner
is the Miami Dolphins who not only managed to give their defense a major boost
by getting Christian Wilkins in the 11 spot but later received a potential
franchise quarterback in Rosen by taking advantage of Arizona’s mistakes.
To
round out my Congratulations tour, best wishes to six teams who will soon find
out, if they don’t already know, anytime you get an Iowa Hawkeye or an Iowa state
Cyclone on your team you are always adding leadership and competitiveness.
Congrats to T.J. Hockenson (Detroit) and Noah Fant (Denver) for being the first
two tight ends off the board in 2019 and putting Iowa in the history books as
the first team to ever have two tight ends taken in the first round of the same
draft. Next, congratulations to Amani Hooker (Tennessee) and Anthony Nelson
(Tampa Bay) for working your butts off, resulting in being drafted into the NFL.
Hakeem Butler (Arizona) and David Montgomery (Chicago) from the Cyclones also
made the Hawkeye state proud by getting drafted and I wish them nothing but
success at the next level.
For
a more in-depth break down you can listen to Aaron Peeples and me on his next
podcast. We will record this weekend and it will be posted early next week on the
California State Northridge (CSUN) newspaper’s web page at https://sundial.csun.edu/section/listen/.
I will also give you a heads up from my twitter account when it is posted. I will
be his guest for the duration of The Peeples Show.
(Follow me on twitter @Jake_Ruch for
my real-time sports-related thoughts and updates on when I post new articles on
my blog.)